Forecast Overview

Kevel Forecast provides the insights you need to see what inventory is available and how a campaign will deliver. You have the ability to predict future ad traffic levels and campaign inventory availability using an unlimited number of targeting variables, including geo, keyword, key-value, user segment, or frequency capping.

What are some use cases for forecasting?

Estimate future traffic and ADR spend:

• Forecast how many future ad requests you’ll make, helping you accurately predict your overall usage spend
• See how your usage spend will go towards different targeting parameters, such as by keyword, geo, network, site, etc. If most of your ADRs are going towards ads targeted by geography, but keyword targeting is more important to your performance, this forecast helps you adjust accordingly.

Understand existing campaign performance:

• Predict how the ads currently running likely to perform over a period of time. You can analyze this by estimated click performance predictions., helping you decide if this campaign will maximize your revenue and user experience.
• This also helps you provide early insights to advertisers and suggestions for how they might optimize their performance with you.

Optimize future availability:

• See how many total impressions are left available for a proposed targeting opportunity, considering all other running campaigns. This helps identify how proposed campaigns will work alongside current or other future campaigns, allowing you to communicate with confidence to advertisers what performance they might see.

Maximize ad spend

• Make the most of how advertisers are spending with you. By predicting the delivery of booked future campaigns and their interactions with one another, you can see if you have remaining impressions (thereby can take on more advertisers) or if you’re overbooked (allowing you to charge more for increased demand).

Streamline ad ops teams

• Save ad ops teams time and maximize their effectiveness. No more setting campaigns and wondering how they’ll perform- forecast helps you see their performance before you get started.

How does Kevel forecast my inventory?

Kevel Forecast operates by looking at the nature and kinds of requests a network has generated historically and projecting those requests out into the future at the individual ad request level. Viewing the nature of requests means looking at repeat vs new users, the context of the ad requests (location, browser, device type, keywords used, segments, frequency of ad request per user), etc. Using these future ad requests, every time a forecast request is received, our algorithm predicts how ads will serve for those future ad requests by simulating the Kevel Ad Platform ad selection process.

The ad request parameter data used for building forecasts comes from the historical ad request parameters sent as well as the respective user data stored for the user in UserDB at the point in time of the ad request. There is no need to set or run campaigns using any of the targeting fields (like location, keyword, site id, ad type, etc) or user data points ahead of time for them to be considered for forecasting.

How much historical data does Kevel Forecast need?

Kevel Forecast needs a minimum of 7 days of historical data to project future ad requests. Forecast accuracy gradually increases after the initial 7 day period and will reach maximum efficiency once the product has at least 28 days of data to simulate future requests.

Forecasting types

Kevel Forecast provides 4 different types of forecasts. Each provides insights on impressions and unique users with the ability to group the results by any given targeting dimension:

• Existing - Forecasts how existing ads will deliver.
• Eligible - Forecasts the remaining available inventory (not taken by current running ads) at a given priority level, optionally matching a specific targeting criteria.
• Available - Forecasts a new set of ads, passed in the payload, ignoring any ads that are already running in your network. Because Eligibility doesn't consider other competing ads, the forecast runs faster while letting you simulate multiple new ads running at the same time.
• Deliverable - Forecasts a new set of ads taking into account the impact of ads already running in the network.

What kinds of inventory, goals, and selection method types does Forecast support?

As Forecast is still in Alpha, it’s limited to these criteria:

• Inventory: Ads
• Goals: Impression
• Selection method: Lottery

What’s coming next

While Kevel Forecast is in closed Alpha trials, if you’re interested in learning more and signing up, please reach out to your CSM. After our Alpha phase is complete, we plan to release the following items in the near future:

• An API more similar to the management API in its terminology and structure of the definition of ads/flights.
• Faster forecasting
• Forecast flights and campaigns
• Support all goal types that Kevel’s ad server APIs support
• Support all selection methods that Kevel’s ad server APIs support